ASML and China: chip export tensions and European supply chain

The chronology of a silent dispute

On June 19, 2026, TechCrunch has reported a significant diplomatic tension. The US government has suggested that one of ASML's most advanced machines — likely an EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography) system — is in China. ASML has responded with a clear denial. The company stated that it has not violated any export licenses.

However, the mere formulation of the accusation has generated ripple effects. Financial markets have reacted with volatility. Furthermore, the political debate in Europe and the United States has reignited around an already hot topic: how far can Western control over dual-use technologies go?

Therefore, before analyzing the operational implications, it is useful to reconstruct the context. ASML is the only company in the world capable of producing EUV machines. These machines are essential for manufacturing chips with geometries smaller than 7 nanometers. Consequently, whoever controls ASML effectively controls the bottleneck of the entire global semiconductor industry.

Winners and losers in the semiconductor game

In this affair, the risk profiles are asymmetrically distributed. Let's analyze the main players.

ASML finds itself in a paradoxical position. It is a private Dutch company, but it operates in a sector that governments treat as strategic infrastructure. Every commercial move it makes is subject to multilateral scrutiny. Despite this, its technological monopoly position gives it extraordinary bargaining power.

The United States have progressively expanded controls on the export of semiconductor technologies to China. Already in 2023, they had pressured the Netherlands to revoke export licenses for EUV systems. In 2025, these restrictions were further tightened. Therefore, the current move appears consistent with a long-term technological containment strategy.

China , for its part, has invested billions in developing a domestic semiconductor supply chain. However, the technological gap compared to global leaders remains wide. Therefore, access — even indirect — to technologies like ASML's would represent a significant qualitative leap.

Europe , finally, finds itself in the middle. European companies depend on chips produced with ASML technologies. Consequently, any geopolitical escalation translates into concrete risks for business continuity.

The business logic nobody says out loud

One consideration clearly emerges from the analysis of the situation. ASML has no rational incentive to risk its export license. Losing that license would mean being unable to sell its systems to its most important customers: TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. This would result in economic damage in the order of tens of billions of euros.

Indeed, as highlighted by McKinsey in its semiconductor observatory , companies operating in dual-use sectors develop extremely sophisticated compliance systems. Precisely because the cost of violation is existential. Therefore, the hypothesis of intentional violation by ASML appears unlikely from a commercial logic standpoint.

However, this doesn't rule out more complex scenarios. For example, a breach could have occurred through third-party intermediaries, without ASML's direct involvement. Or it could be a customs misclassification error. In any case, the ongoing investigation will clarify the details. What matters, strategically, is the direction of the geopolitical wind.

SHM Studio's take: why Italian SMEs need to pay attention

At first glance, a diplomatic dispute between Washington and a Dutch company seems far removed from the daily concerns of an Italian SME. In reality, the implications are closer than they seem.

We at SHM Studio we work every day with companies that depend on digital infrastructure. These infrastructures — from cloud servers to SaaS tools, from hardware devices to production plants — are all built on chips. Therefore, any shock in the semiconductor supply chain quickly propagates along the entire digital value chain.

Furthermore, geopolitical tensions tend to accelerate two parallel phenomena. On one hand, the increase in the prices of electronic components. On the other, the lengthening of delivery times. Consequently, companies that have not diversified their technological suppliers are exposed to significant operational risks.

To learn more about how to structure a resilient digital strategy, you can consult our areas of expertise in applied artificial intelligence and strategic digital marketing .

The regulatory context: rapidly evolving export controls

The international regulatory framework on the export of critical technologies has changed profoundly in recent years. The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the US Department of Commerce has progressively expanded the list of technologies subject to control.

In particular, advanced chips and the machinery for their production are currently classified as dual-use technologies. This means they can have both civilian and military applications. Consequently, their export requires specific licenses and thorough checks on the end-user.

Similarly, the European Union has strengthened its control mechanisms. The EU Regulation on dual-use technologies, updated in 2021 and further implemented in 2025, imposes stricter due diligence obligations. Therefore, European companies operating in technological sectors must carefully monitor regulatory developments.

For Italian SMEs managing web infrastructure or SEO strategies dependent on cloud platforms, it's useful to know that cloud providers are also subject to these dynamics. Therefore, the choice of a technology provider is never just a matter of price or functionality.

Future scenarios: reshoring and supply chain diversification

The ASML affair accelerates an ongoing trend. Governments and companies are investing heavily in reshoring semiconductor production. The Harvard Business Review analyzed as this transition requires investments in the order of hundreds of billions of dollars and implementation times of at least a decade.

In Europe, the European Chips Act aims to bring the continent's production share to 20% of the global total by 2030. However, experts are skeptical about the feasibility of this goal within the planned timeframe. Despite this, the strategic direction is clear: reduce dependence on Asian suppliers.

For Italian SMEs, this scenario opens up concrete opportunities. For example, companies operating in electronic components or industrial automation could benefit from new public and private investment flows. Likewise, those providing digital services to these supply chains could find themselves in a favorable position.

Our expertise in LinkedIn campaigns and Google Ads can support companies that want to position themselves in these emerging markets. Furthermore, a strategy of SEO copywriting targeted can help capture growing demand in these sectors.

Next moves: what to watch in the coming months

The ASML-USA dispute is still open. In the coming months, it will be useful to keep an eye on some key indicators.

• The outcome of the government investigation: if the accusation were confirmed, the repercussions on the semiconductor market would be immediate and significant.
• The reactions of European governments: in particular, the response of the Netherlands will be indicative of the strength of European strategic autonomy.
• The performance of ASML shares: financial markets often act as an early thermometer of sector expectations.
• Chip prices on the spot market: any increase in tension would be quickly reflected in procurement costs.

Therefore, those operating in tech-dependent sectors would do well to establish a continuous monitoring system. Finally, for those who wish to delve deeper into how to integrate these analyses into their digital strategy, the team at SHM Studio is available for a consultation . You can also explore our Blog for further insights on technology, markets, and digital strategies for Italian SMEs.