Nuro challenges Waymo: the second-mover strategy in robotaxis

The timeline of a breakthrough: from delivery robot to Waymo competitor

Nuro was founded in 2016 by two veterans of Google's self-driving car project. For years, the company focused on autonomous vehicles for last-mile delivery. Then, in 2024, came the pivot: Nuro abandoned the delivery segment and announced its entry into the robotaxi market.

The decision is not random. In fact, the autonomous delivery market has shown compressed margins and high regulatory barriers. On the contrary, the autonomous ride-hailing segment promises volumes and revenues on a completely different scale. Therefore, Nuro has redefined its mission and sought powerful industrial allies.

The result is a three-way partnership: Nuro, Uber, and Lucid Motors. According to reports by The Verge , the agreement involves deploying tens of thousands of robotaxis across the United States. Lucid provides the electric vehicle platform. Uber ensures commercial distribution and the user base. Nuro brings the autonomous tech stack.

Waymo and the first-mover advantage: the numbers that matter

Waymo currently operates a fleet of over 3,000 driverless vehicles in at least ten American cities. It is the undisputed benchmark in the sector. However, leadership is not eternal: the history of technological innovation teaches us that pioneers often pave the way for those who come later with a more efficient model.

The concept of second-mover advantage is well documented in strategic literature. According to Harvard Business Review , whoever enters second can benefit from the pioneer's mistakes, lower R&D costs, and tap into an already educated market. Therefore, Nuro's position isn't necessarily a disadvantage.

Besides this, Waymo has built its own tech stack in a vertically integrated way. This approach offers control, but limits rapid scalability. Nuro, on the other hand, focuses on a partnership model. As a result, it can grow faster if the alliances hold up.

SHM Studio's take: three competitive levers to watch

We at SHM Studio we are following the evolution of competitive models in the tech sector with a special focus on the implications for Italian businesses. In this case, three strategic levers emerge that are worth analyzing.

First lever: distribution as a moat. Nuro didn't choose Uber by chance. Uber brings millions of active users, payment infrastructure, and widespread city presence with it. Therefore, the adoption problem — often fatal for hardware startups — is handed off to an already established partner.

Second lever: the dedicated vehicle. Lucid is no run-of-the-mill supplier. They're a maker of premium EVs with a scalable platform. Much like Waymo did with the Jaguar I-Pace, Nuro is betting on a vehicle tailored for self-driving. But unlike Waymo, they don't manufacture in-house.

Third lever: regulatory timing. By 2026, several US states have passed regulations favorable to commercial autonomous vehicles. So, those entering now find a less hostile context compared to three years ago. This lowers the barrier to entry for second movers.

Winners and losers in the global AV ecosystem

The Nuro-Uber-Lucid deal redraws the industry's balance. Let's see who wins and who is at risk.

• Uber gains a tech partner without having to develop an AV stack internally. Plus, it diversifies its portfolio of autonomous suppliers, cutting down its reliance on Waymo.
• Lucid finds a high-volume use case for its vehicle platform. Consequently, it improves its industrial fundamentals at a time when the consumer EV market is under pressure.
• Nuro gets funding, distribution, and street cred. Still, it faces execution risk: shifting from delivery to robotaxis is no walk in the park operationally.
• Waymo maintains its technological edge and brand. Despite this, it sees competitive pressure mounting from multiple fronts simultaneously. Tesla, Zoox, Avride, and now Nuro are narrowing its room for maneuver.
• Motional and Zoox risk being crushed in the middle: neither pioneers nor structured second movers. Therefore, their position appears the most vulnerable.

Implications for Italian SMEs: logistics, mobility, and digital positioning

In Italy, commercial autonomous vehicles are still in the experimental phase. However, the competitive dynamics developing in the USA anticipate what will happen in Europe in the next two to three years. SMEs active in logistics, urban freight transport, and corporate mobility would do well to monitor these developments today.

Specifically, three categories of businesses should pay attention. First of all, last-mile logistics companies operating in dense urban environments. Next, corporate fleet managers who manage vehicle fleets for internal use. Finally, retailers with rapid delivery needs who might integrate autonomous solutions into their supply chain.

For these players, the real test isn't tech, it's strategy: figuring out when and how to jump on tech that's maturing fast. A digital marketing plan structured can help build visibility and authority in the sector before competitors do.

Similarly, those operating in related B2B services — fleet insurance, vehicle maintenance, management software — should update their SEO positioning to capture informational demand that will grow rapidly in the coming months.

The work still in progress: what remains unresolved

Nuro's strategy is ambitious. However, several issues remain open and deserve critical attention.

The first concerns the operational scalability . Moving from a few pilot vehicles to tens of thousands requires a robust industrial supply chain. Lucid has limited manufacturing capacity compared to major OEMs. Therefore, deployment timelines could slip significantly.

The second issue is the incident management . Every critical event in a still sensitive market can slow down regulatory adoption. As highlighted by MIT Technology Review in the 2023 Cruise case, a single incident can halt an entire operation for months.

The third critical element is the profitability . No robotaxi operator has yet proven a sustainable economic model on a large scale. Therefore, the underlying question remains: who will pay for the billions of dollars in investment needed before revenues become structural?

Next moves: what to watch in the next 18 months

Looking at the 2026-2027 period, some indicators will allow us to assess whether Nuro's bet is holding up.

First, the number of cities where the service actually launches. A rollout of fewer than five markets by the end of 2026 would signal operational hurdles. Plus, Lucid's ability to ramp up production volumes will be a reliable gauge of the deal's strength.

Secondly, Waymo's response. If Alphabet were to decide to accelerate its geographic expansion or partner with other ride-hailing operators, Nuro's competitive advantage would shrink significantly. Therefore, monitoring Waymo's moves is just as important as following Nuro.

Finally, the evolution of the European regulatory framework. The European Commission is working on a framework for autonomous vehicles. As a result, Italian SMEs that prepare today will have a significant competitive advantage when the first commercial authorizations arrive in our country as well.

For companies that want to build a solid digital presence in rapidly evolving sectors, services of web development , SEO copywriting and AI consulting offered by SHM Studio represent a concrete starting point. Similarly, targeted campaigns on Linkedin and Google Ads can speed up positioning in niche markets that are about to get super competitive. For a tailored analysis, the team is reachable via the page contacts or exploring the Blog for vertical deep dives.