TSMC and the AI bottleneck: what changes for SMEs

The context: why TSMC is at the heart of everything

TSMC — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — produces over 90% of the world's most advanced chips. It's not just another supplier. It's the critical infrastructure that Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and dozens of other players rely on. Therefore, when its CEO publicly declares production limits, the entire global tech supply chain must stop and reflect.

According to reports by The Verge , C.C. Wei made these statements after the June 2026 shareholder meeting. His words — «We can only support so much» — are not an excuse. They are a warning. In fact, TSMC is expanding production capacity in the United States, but the pace of fab construction cannot compete with the speed at which AI demand is accelerating.

Plus, it's not just a numbers game. It's about quality, too: the cutting-edge manufacturing nodes (3nm, 2nm) are in the highest demand and shortest supply. Because of this, anyone without locked-in supply contracts risks being left off the allocation list for months.

The numbers that matter: shortages go beyond logic chips

The semiconductor shortage in 2026 has a different shape compared to the 2021-2022 crisis. Back then, the problem was widespread. Today, it's concentrated on high computational density components required by AI.

However, the impact ripples down the value chain. According to analyses by Gartner , the shortage of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and NAND Flash is expected to last at least until 2028. So, this isn't a temporary blip.

Right now, three types of components are feeling the squeeze:

• GPUs and AI accelerators : tight allocations, with delivery times going past 12 months for enterprise series.
• High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) : production is concentrated in just a few players (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron), and their order books are completely full.
• NAND Flash : expected shortage for high-speed storage, impacting enterprise SSDs and local inference systems.

On top of that, chips for edge computing - usually built on mid-tier TSMC nodes - are feeling the squeeze indirectly. In fact, foundries are shifting their capacity over to premium clients, leaving less availability for industrial and IoT device makers.

The big picture: what this means for Italy's B2B supply chain

Italian B2B SMEs tend to perceive these dynamics with a six- to twelve-month delay. By the time the shortage becomes visible locally, options have already narrowed. Therefore, reading the market ahead of time is a tangible competitive advantage.

Similarly to what happened in 2021 with automotive chips, companies that planned ahead maintained operational continuity. Those that waited experienced production halts and revenue losses. Therefore, the pattern repeats itself — but this time the sector involved is AI, which is not a niche but a cross-cutting driver of digital transformation.

In particular, B2B SMEs that are evaluating or have already started projects in these areas must consider the impact of the shortage:

• On-premise AI infrastructures : servers with dedicated GPUs, workstations for local inference, and high-speed NAS setups.
• Hardware upgrades for industrial automation : PLCs and embedded systems with advanced-node components.
• Edge computing and industrial IoT : devices relying on mid-range TSMC chips.
• Video surveillance systems and AI visual analysis : smart cameras with local processing chips.

According to McKinsey , the semiconductor decade is marked by increasingly frequent and less predictable shortage cycles. That's why the electronic components supply chain must be treated as a strategic variable, not just an operational detail.

The construction site is still open: US fabs are not (yet) enough

TSMC has poured over 65 billion dollars into building fabs in Arizona. Still, production ramp-up times are long. An advanced fab takes years to hit full capacity. So, the US expansion doesn't fix the issue in the short term.

Furthermore, US fabs are designed to meet the demand of large American customers — Nvidia, Apple, AMD, defense contractors. Consequently, the additional capacity is absorbed even before it enters production. European SMEs and their second-tier suppliers remain at the bottom of the allocation priority list.

Despite this, the geographical expansion of production is a positive sign for the medium term. Between 2027 and 2028, additional capacity should begin to normalize delivery times on less advanced nodes. In summary, the problem is structural today, but not permanent. The critical window is the current one.

What this means for planning AI projects in 2026

We at SHM Studio we work daily with Italian SMEs that are integrating AI into their processes. Therefore, we directly observe how hardware decisions affect the implementation timelines of digital projects.

Here are the key operational takeaways every small business should keep in mind:

Pre-order critical hardware

If an AI project requires dedicated hardware, the purchase must be planned at least 6-9 months before the go-live date. So, those defining the 2027 budget need to place hardware orders as early as the third quarter of 2026. Conversely, waiting for project confirmation before ordering means risking delays that shift the entire roadmap.

Consider cloud-first solutions as a tactical alternative

In the absence of available hardware, cloud-based AI solutions are a valid alternative to start projects without waiting for component availability. In fact, platforms like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud offer immediate access to AI computational capacity without depending on the physical supply chain. However, this choice implies careful evaluation of recurring costs and latency for real-time applications.

The SHM Studio AI services include the assessment of the most suitable architecture—on-premise, cloud, or hybrid—based on budget, latency requirements, and hardware availability. This analysis is particularly relevant in a context of prolonged shortage.

Map the technology supplier supply chain

SMEs rarely buy directly from TSMC. However, their hardware suppliers — system integrators, VARs, IT distributors — depend on the same supply chain. Consequently, it's useful to explicitly ask technology suppliers which components are subject to shortages and what the real, not nominal, delivery times are.

Review IT supply contracts with priority clauses

Some distributors offer preferential allocation programs for customers with multi-year contracts. Therefore, SMEs that have established relationships with hardware suppliers should explore this option. In particular, for projects with critical hardware, an allocation priority clause can make the difference between a timely launch and a six-month delay.

Why your digital strategy matters when hardware is hard to find

The semiconductor shortage doesn't block digital transformation. It slows it down and redirects it. Therefore, SMEs that adopt a strategic approach—instead of just reacting to the emergency—can turn this constraint into a competitive advantage.

For example, investing today in SEO and Digital marketing doesn't need special hardware. In the same way, building your online presence, fine-tuning your google ads campaigns or build a strategy of LinkedIn B2B are things you can do that bring results no matter how hard it is to get chips.

Furthermore, the web development AI-first - integrating chatbots, recommendation engines, and dynamic personalization - can be added to your current cloud setup without waiting around for custom hardware. So, the digital roadmap shouldn't hit pause; it just needs to roll with the punches.

Finally, the SEO copywriting and content production remain accessible, high-ROI growth levers that don't rely on the semiconductor supply chain. At a time when many companies are slowing down due to hardware issues, those who invest in digital visibility grab market positions that are tough to win back later.

Outlook: what to expect between 2027 and 2028

Industry forecasts point to a gradual normalization of production capacity between the second half of 2027 and 2028. However, AI demand will keep growing faster than capacity expansion. As a result, the shortage might ease without ever being fully resolved.

In this scenario, SMEs that have built a diversified hardware supply chain and strong relationships with technology suppliers will be better positioned. Similarly, those that have started AI projects on cloud-first architectures will be able to scale quickly when hardware becomes available again.

To delve deeper into these topics or assess the impact on your company's digital roadmap, the team at SHM Studio is available for a consultation . Furthermore, on the SHM Studio blog updates on tech trends that matter for Italian small and medium businesses are published regularly.