AI in digital payments: the new UPI business model

The signal coming from India: why it matters even in Europe

At the end of June 2026, TechCrunch reported on the statements of Dilip Asbe, CEO of NPCI (National Payments Corporation of India). Asbe clearly stated that AI will be deeply involved in the next era of digital payment growth. In particular, he highlighted how new UPI apps could compete more effectively only if equipped with a truly sustainable business model.

This scenario might seem distant from the Italian reality. However, the UPI system is today the global benchmark for real-time payments. In fact, it processed over 131 billion transactions in fiscal year 2024-25 alone. Consequently, the dynamics that emerge in that context often anticipate what will happen in Western markets with a 12-24 month delay.

Therefore, for marketing managers and digital managers of Italian companies—especially in retail, B2B, and fintech—reading these signals in advance is a tangible competitive advantage.

The numbers reshaping the global payments market

The global digital payments market is worth over $11 trillion today. According to McKinsey Global Payments Report, growth is robust but pressure on margins is equally strong. In fact, the commoditization of basic payments has eroded the profitability of traditional players.

Moreover, the advent of instant payments — in Europe driven by the EU Regulation on Instant Payments which came into effect in 2025 — has accelerated the need to find new revenue streams. Therefore, the central question is no longer how to grow volumes, but How to monetize intelligently.

In this context, AI acts as an enabler of three fundamental levers:

• Commercial offer personalization in real-time, based on the user's payment behavior.
• Fraud detection and risk scoring predictive, which reduces operating costs and increases user confidence.
• Dynamic fee optimization and pricing models, adaptable to the transactional context.

Furthermore, applications emerge related to the analysis of aggregated data to build spending profiles useful for third-party marketing – with all the regulatory implications that entails, particularly under the European GDPR.

From the UPI lesson to the Italian context: three strategic readings

The Indian case offers three insights directly applicable to the Italian market. First of all, the issue of Revenue model. UPI was designed as a completely free infrastructure for the end-user. As a result, apps built on it have struggled to find profit margins. AI now allows for the construction of value-added layers—recommendations, analytics, embedded financial products—that justify indirect monetization.

Later, the theme of App competition. Similarly to what happens with Asian super-apps, a concentration around a few dominant players is also emerging in Europe (Revolut, Klarna, Satispay in Italy). However, AI lowers the barrier for newcomers who know how to leverage it well. Therefore, it's not a given that large incumbents have an insurmountable advantage.

Finally, there's the theme of trust and user experience. AI applied to payments isn't just backend. It's also conversational interface, proactive assistance, and intelligent notifications. For this reason, companies that integrate AI into the payment experience measurably improve retention and NPS.

Operational implications for marketing managers and digital leads

For those managing strategies of digital marketing In companies with an e-commerce or fintech component, the implications are concrete. In fact, payment is no longer the end of the funnel: it is a touchpoint rich in data and engagement opportunities.

Therefore, it is worth considering some operational directions:

• Integration between CRM and payment dataAI can correlate purchasing behaviors and payment methods for more precise segmentation. This fuels more relevant campaigns on Google Ads e LinkedIn.
• AI-based loyalty programsPredictive models allow you to offer incentives at the right time, increasing conversion rates and reducing churn.
• Content and SEO for fintech: The growing interest in digital payments and AI generates significant search volumes. A strategy of SEO e copywriting Mirata can intercept qualified demand.
• AI applied to campaignsI AI services SHM Studio includes automatic optimization of budgets and messages, with direct impacts on ROAS.

Beyond this, businesses operating in B2B should monitor the evolution of embedded payments within management software. In fact, this integration is redefining purchasing processes and, consequently, the touchpoints for marketing efforts.

The construction site still open: risks and variables to keep an eye on

Despite this, the path is not without obstacles. Therefore, it is useful to map the main risk variables for those who want to navigate this space.

The first node is Regulatory. AI applied to payment data directly touches on GDPR, PSD3 (in the process of being transposed), and the guidelines of the European AI Act. Consequently, any initiative must be designed with an approach Privacy by Design from architecture.

The second node is technological. As highlighted by Gartner in its analysis on AI in financial services, Many organizations underestimate the complexity of integrating legacy systems with AI models. Therefore, data governance is often the main bottleneck.

The third node is cultural. The adoption of AI in payment processes requires a change in mindset within organizations. In fact, it's not just about implementing a tool, but about redesigning decision-making flows and KPIs. For this reason, change management is an integral part of the project.

In summary, the opportunities are real and significant. However, they require a structured, not improvised, approach.

SHM Studio's Perspective: Where the Game is Played in the Next 24 Months

We of SHM Studio We are observing this evolution with strategic interest. In fact, the convergence between AI, digital payments, and marketing is not a niche topic: it is destined to redefine entire sectors by 2027-2028.

For Italian SMEs and mid-market companies, the window of opportunity is open. However, it will close quickly as larger players consolidate their positions. Consequently, acting proactively—even on seemingly minor aspects like checkout optimization or post-payment personalization—can make the difference.

Furthermore, AI is not a separate investment from marketing: it's a multiplier of ongoing initiatives. Therefore, the first step isn't necessarily building proprietary models, but integrating artificial intelligence into existing touchpoints—from the website to campaigns, from web presence AI conversion funnels.

Anyone who wants to explore how these dynamics apply to their specific context can Contact the SHM Studio team for a preliminary analysis. Furthermore, in the SHM Studio Blog We regularly publish analyses and updates on AI, digital marketing, and emerging technologies for the Italian market.